Abstract

Due to recent increase in US reciprocal tariffs in 2025, India's gherkin exports got effected, with a surge of 129.87 percent tarrif for HS-200110 (preserved in vinegar or acetic acid) and 104.17 percent for HS-071140 (provisionally preserved), This poses a significant challenge for India's gherkin trade, which heavily relies on the US market (which accounts for 80 percent of exports). Despite India being the largest exporter of gherkins, the sector faced a decline in 2022-23 due to the pandemic, with a negative CAGR for HS-200110 in Period-II. Markov chain analysis further highlights the US and Russia as stable partners, but the increased tariff risks undermine this stability. This heavy dependence on a single market, coupled with geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine war, underscores the need for India to diversify its export destinations. This study aims to assess India’s trade competitiveness in the global gherkin market, analyze the direction and stability of trade flows, and evaluate the implications of recent tariff changes on export performance. The past decade showed positive export performance and growth, but to secure future competitiveness, India must focus on policy measures that prioritize investment in processing infrastructure, promote value-added products, and strengthen compliance with international quality standards, while also negotiating trade agreements to ensure geographical diversification and reduce reliance on the US.

Description

Indian Journal of Economics and Development
Volume 21 No. 2, June 2025, 000-000

https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-24230

Impact Factor: 0.3 (Web of Science)
NAAS Score: 6.30 (2025)
Indexed in Scopus (SJR = 0.13)
Resurchify Impact Score: 0.23
UGC Approved (UGC Care List Group II)
Index Copernicus (ICV 2023: 105.09)