Price Volatility and Seasonal Analysis of Tomato, Onion and Potato

Published On: 2020-12-16 08:55:52

Price: ₹ 500

Author: M. Areef , Y. Radha and S. Rajeswari 1* 2 3

Author Address: Ph.D. Scholar , Professor University Head and Assistant Professor , Department of Agricultural Economics, 1 2 3 and Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Guntur-522034 (Andhra Pradesh)

Keywords: ADF test, GARCH model, moving average and seasonal indices.

JEL Codes: C43, C52, Q11, Q13, Q18.


The present study was aimed at analyzing volatility, and seasonal variation in prices of tomato, onion and potato (TOP) using Generalized GARCH) analysis and monthly centered moving Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ( average method. Based on the highest market arrivals of produce, the Madanapalle (Andhra Pradesh), Lasalgaon (Maharashtra) and Agra (Uttar Pradesh) markets were selected for tomato, onion, and potato respectively. A monthly time series data for a period of 15 years from January 2005 to December 2019 were considered for analysis. The results revealed that among the selected three markets, the Agra market exhibited persistent price variation (?+?=1.112) followed by Madanapalle (?+?=0.976) and Lasalgaon market (?+?=0.969). The highest seasonal price indices were observed during November (169.23), October (141.65) and November (132.08) respectively at Madanapalle tomato, Lasalgaon onion and Agra potato markets respectively. A systematic market intelligence network is needed to collect and collate real-time data on crop area, production, demand, supply, and prices, to get more stable and remunerative prices at the farmer level. Strengthening of post-harvest infrastructural facilities to stabilize the prices and to improve the marketing system for TOP crops is essential for the benefit of both producers and consumers.


Indian Journal of Economics and Development
Volume 16 No. 4, 2020, 625-630
Indexed in Clarivate Analytics (ESCI) of WoS
Scopus: Title Accepted 
NAAS Score: 4.82