Author: Veer Sain1, K.K. Kundu2, and Raj Kumar3
Author Address: 1Assistant Professor, 2Associate Professor 3Senior Research Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics
Keywords: ACF, ARIMA, forecasting average price, PACF.
JEL Codes: C10, C11, C12, C13.
The present study was conducted in Bhiwani district, Siwani and Tosham blocks of Haryana which was selected purposively on the basis of maximum production under gram crop. Further, four regulated markets (Siwani, Dadri, Tosham and Bhiwani) from the Bhiwani district were purposively selected. Average prices in Haryana, data for the period of 2005 to 2016 were analyzed the time series methods. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. The validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) and ARIMA (1, 1, 3) model and used to forecast average prices in Bhiwani for one leading year. The results showed that the average prices forecast for 2017 to be about `4769 per quintal with upper and lower limit `4769 to 4604 per quintal in the Siwani market, `4719 per quintal with upper and lower limit`4719 to 4622 per quintal in Dadri market, `4766 per quintal with upper and lower limit `4766 to4639 per quintal in the Tosham market and `4798 per quintal with upper and lower limit `4798 to 4648 per quintal in the Bhiwani market, respectively.
Indian Journal of Economics and Development
Volume 16 No. SS, 2020, 239-245
Indexed in Clarivate Analytics (ESCI) of WoS
Veer Sain1, K.K. Kundu2, and Raj Kumar3
1Assistant Professor, 2Associate Professor 3Senior Research Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics
CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar -123005
Corresponding author’s email: email@example.com