Modelling Onion Price Volatility and Market Interdependencies: Insights from Indian Markets: 24374
Price: ₹ 1000
https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-24374
Author: Monika Devi, Abdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al Khatib, Hicham Ayad, Shikha Yadav, Anant Tamang, Tufleuddin Biswas, and Soumik Ray
Author Address: Department of Agricultural Statistics and Economics, Centurion University of Technology and Management, Odisha-761211 (India)
Abstract
Onion is one of the most market-sensitive agricultural
commodities in India, with price fluctuations affecting both producers and
consumers. This study examined the volatility and price transmission mechanisms
in nine Indian onion markets using monthly data from January 2010 to December
2020. Through Johansen cointegration tests, the analysis focused a long-term
co-movement of prices across these markets. Additionally, the multivariate
GARCH model highlighted significant conditional volatility and strong, time-varying
positive price connections, with the Delhi market being the most influential.
Any price disruption in Delhi rapidly spreads to other markets. These findings
emphasized the need for policymakers to understand price dynamics better and
design effective measures to prevent market inefficiencies, such as artificial
price inflation due to hoarding or collusion. The study offered valuable
insights into market interdependencies and volatility, helping to inform policy
decisions and improve forecasting in onion production systems, particularly
following unusual volatility events like that of December 2010.
Keywords: Multivariate GARCH, spillover effect, volatile
price.
Description
Indian Journal of Economics and Development
Volume 21 No. 2, June 2025, 000-000
https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-24374
Impact Factor: 0.3 (Web of Science)
NAAS Score: 6.30 (2025)
Indexed in Scopus (SJR = 0.13)
Resurchify Impact Score: 0.23
UGC Approved (UGC Care List Group II)
Index Copernicus (ICV 2023: 105.09)