Econometric Modeling and Forecasting of Vegetable Dynamics in Himachal Pradesh: ARIMA Approach: 24136
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https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-24136
Author: Lalenpuii, Ravinder Sharma and Niyati Thakur
Author Address: Department of Social Sciences, College of Forestry, Dr Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni, Solan-173230 (HP)
Abstract
This
study analyzed trends in area, production, productivity, and tomato prices in the
Solan market. It forecasts them for the next two years using secondary data
(2001–2023 for area and production, 2003–2023 for price). The growth rates of area
(2.18 per cent), production (4.95 per cent) and productivity (2.72 per cent) and production growth was primarily due to area expansion, contributing
45.93 per cent to the increase. The instability index suggests low
cultivation risk. ARIMA models forecast an increasing trend in all parameters.
Tomato prices were found to have a positive
growth rate during all the months. Seasonal indices ranged from 0.71 to
1.14 (off-season) and 0.91 to 1.20 (peak season), showing higher off-season
variation. ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) [12] predicted a continued price rise.
These findings aided farmers, policymakers and researchers in decision-making.
Keywords: Growth rates, market, prices, seasonal trends, time series analysis.
JEL Codes: C22, C53, Q11, Q13.
Description
Indian Journal of Economics and Development
Volume 21 No. 1, March 2025, 000-000
https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-24136
Impact Factor: 0.3 (Web of Science)
NAAS Score: 6.30 (2025)
Indexed in Scopus (SJR = 0.13)
Resurchify Impact Score: 0.23
UGC Approved (UGC Care List Group II)
Index Copernicus (ICV 2023: 105.09)