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Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for India? Another Look at the Evidence

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Indian Journal of Economics and Development
Volume 15 No. 3, 2019, 331-340
DOI: 10.5958/2322-0430.2019.00043.X
Indexed in Clarivate Analytics (ESCI)

Md Sahnewaz Sanu
Senior Research Fellow, Department of Economics, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh-202002 (U.P.)
E-mail: ssanu786@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
The previous studies on the export-led growth hypothesis in India have yielded mixed and inconclusive results. This study explores the dynamic relationship between real exports and real economic growth for India in a multivariate framework by including ‘terms of trade’ as an additional variable for the period 1980-2017. Unlike most of the previous studies, this study employed the ARDL bounds testing approach and Toda-Yamamoto version of modified Granger causality test to examine this linkage. The results of the bound tests indicated that there was a stable long-run relationship between the variables when economic growth proxied by GDP growth was the dependent variable. Further, the results of the modified Granger causality test suggested that there was unidirectional causal flow from exports to economic growth and terms of trade to economic growth without any feedback. The study, therefore, provides further evidence that growth in exports stimulate economic growth in India while there is no evidence of growth-driven export.
Keywords
ARDL bounds test, causality, export-led growth, GDP, terms of trade, Toda-Yamamoto.
JEL Codes
C32, C51, F13, F14, F43, F63, O19.

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