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Cumin Price Forecasting in Rajasthan: ARIMA Model

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Vinod Kumar Verma, S.S. Jheeba, Hemant Sharma, and Pradeep Kumar

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Indian Journal of Economics and Development
Year : 2016, Volume : 12, Issue : 1a
First page : ( 51) Last page : ( 55)
Print ISSN : 2277-5412. Online ISSN : 2322-0430.
Article DOI : 10.5958/2322-0430.2016.00048.2

Cumin Price Forecasting in Rajasthan: ARIMA Model

Verma Vinod Kumar1,*, Jheeba S.S.1, Sharma Hemant2, Kumar Pradeep1
1Department of Agricultural Economics, SKN COA, Jobner

2Agro-Economic Research Centre, S.P. University, Gujarat

*Corresponding author’s email: dr.vinod4u@rediffmail.com

JEL Codes Q13.Q16

Online published on 26 April, 2016.

Abstract
Cumin (Cuminum cyminum L) is a seed spice of an annual herb. Analysis of prices overtime is important for formulating a sound agricultural policy. Fluctuations in market arrivals largely contribute to price instability. Such an analysis is also useful for farmers in order to decide the optimum time to disposing off their produce to their best advantage. In view of this, the present study was undertaken by collecting monthly prices of cumin in Mandor (Jodhpur) market of Rajasthan for a period of 8 years (2008–09 to 2014–15). ARIMA (Box-Jenkins model) was employed to predict the future prices of cumin in Mandor market. The various forms of ARIMA models viz., ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (1, 1, 1), ARIMA(O, 1, 1), ARIMA(2, 1, 1), ARIMA(0, l, 2) and ARIMA(2, l, 0)were tried. The performance of fitted ARIMA model (0, 1, 2) was examined by computing various measures of goodness offl with least Akaike Information Criteria (1432.46), Schwarz Bayesian Criteria (1439.93) and Mean absolute Percentage Error (4.56). Thus, it was the most representative model for the price forecast of cumin in Mandor market of Rajasthan. The developed model can be used as a policy instrument of the producers and stakeholder.

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