An analytical study into growth and variability in area, yield and production of wheat in Punjab


Donata Kemirembe



ndian Journal of Economics and Development
Year : 2014, Volume : 10, Issue : 2
First page : ( 146) Last page : ( 152)
Print ISSN : 2277-5412. Online ISSN : 2322-0430.
Article DOI : 10.5958/j.2322-0430.10.2.043

An analytical study into growth and variability in area, yield and production of wheat in Punjab

Kemirembe Donata
Agriculture Research Officer, Vice President’s Office-Environment, P.O. Box 5380, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Email:

JEL Classification: O13, Q10, Q11

Online published on 28 April, 2014.

The study has analyzed the trends in area, production and yield of wheat of the Punjab state. The study was based on time series data collected from the Statistical Abstract of Punjab for a period of 61 years from 1950–51 to 2010–11. The study period has been divided into three periods: Period-I, 1950–51 to 1965–66, represents the Pre-Green revolution period, Period-II,1966–67 to 1985–86, represents the Green revolution period and Period-III, 1986–87 to 2010–11, is the Post-Green Revolution period. The share of wheat in the total cropped area has increased from 29.59 per cent in 1960–61 to 44.53 per cent in the year 2010–11. The superior varieties’ of wheat introduced during the Green revolution, relative profitability of this crop with minimum production and marketing risks as compared to other crops could be the reason for this sharp increase. The comparison of all periods revealed that Period-II had the highest growth rates of area (3.06%), production (6.24%) and yield (3.15%). The decomposition analysis of growth suggests that yield effect was the major source of growth in Period-I, II and III. For the overall study period, interaction of area and yield (47.72%) was the major contributor to production. Variability in area and yield was the cause for high variability pronounced in production.